Gold prices have been range-bound since the start of the year hovering around Rs 62,000 domestically. Demand for gold in India should benefit from ongoing positive economic conditions and if the prices hold out are not significantly volatile there is likely to be a big spurt in demand. This could be anywhere between 800-900 tonnes. However, price dynamics will be the key thing to watch out for in the remnant of this year.  

Rising prices will undoubtedly exert a downward pull on demand, even with the zenith of the wedding season at play. However, while reports suggest volumes in purchase are down from previous years, weddings will continue to drive some necessary purchases well into 2024.

It must be noted that discretionary spending on gold seems to have gone down. Store visits have been declining since the end of last year. Such cautious behaviour can be seen not just in the retail buyers, but in the jewellers too; high prices are limiting their hunger for inventory building efforts.

Data suggests that income and price are going to remain the primary drivers of gold demand in India for the coming year. While rising income (represented by growing gross national income) is a positive indicator, higher prices tend to act as a counterweight. Models suggest that a 1% increase in income could lead to a 0.9% increase in demand, while a 1% price increase would decrease demand by 0.4%. Although the price impact is smaller in percentage terms, its larger short-term fluctuations often have a more immediate effect on overall demand.

Overall, we foresee a staggered but steady performance of the yellow metal influenced by occasional economic catapults, both globally and domestically. A majority of this factor will be driven by the redefined approach utilising the yellow metal for adornment purpose rather than investment, especially at the domestic level. 

USDINR CMP- 82.87 (spot)

“Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.03% on Friday on strong US Dollar and weak domestic markets. FII outflows and surge in crude oil prices also put downside pressure on Rupee. US Dollar strengthened on hotter than expected inflation data from US. US PPI rose 0.6% in February 2024 vs 0.3% in January 2024. Weekly unemployment claims fell to 209,000 as compared to the forecast of 218,000. Retail sales increased by 0.6% in February 2024 vs -1.1% in January 2024 but slightly lower than forecast of 0.8%. These trimmed expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June 2024,” said Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Choudhary, also added We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strong Dollar and weak global markets amid declining odds of a rate cut by Fed in June. However, some softening of crude oil prices at higher levels may support Rupee. Any selling of Dollars by RBI may also support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from India’s trade balance data. Traders may also take cues from Empire State Manufacturing Index, industrial production and UoM consumer sentiment data from US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.10.

Qwik Supply Chain Private Limited, a little-known company with registered address at Navi Mumbai’s Dhirubhai Ambani Knowledge City (DAKC) and having links to Reliance Industries, was the third largest donor to political parties using electoral bonds. It bought Rs 410 crore of electoral bonds between financial years 2021-22 and 2023-24 but Reliance said the company is not a subsidiary of any Reliance entity.

Electoral bond purchases and donations by Qwik Supply were behind Rs 1,368 crore of Future Gaming and Hotel Services – another little-known lottery company – and Rs 966 crore of Hyderabad-based Megha Engineering & Infra, according to information uploaded by the Election Commission on its website. Publicly available information describes Qwik Supply as a manufacturer of warehouses and storage units. The unlisted private company was incorporated on November 9, 2000 with an authorized share capital of Rs 130.99 crore. Its paid-up capital is Rs 129.99 crore.

On March 13, the markets saw a broad sell-off and Sensex slid to an intraday low of almost 1,600 points. However, what’s interesting is that domestic Institutional Investors bought shares worth around Rs 9,100 crore even when bears were on the prowl. 

The number is rather striking because DII and FII buying/selling is generally seen in  Rs 1,000 crore to Rs 3,500 crore band.  The next day, March 14, when the data came out it was found that Foreign Institutional Investors sold nearly Rs 4,600 crore in the same market.

As per the data till March 13, FIIs have been rather muted in terms of investment in Indian equities compared to DIIs. This will be very clear from the point that DIIs have invested 2.9 times compared to FIIs. DIIs have invested Rs 28,589 crore until March 13 while FIIs have bought shares worth Rs 9,819 crore during the same period. Comparing data of FIIs’ activity in March from the previous year, FIIs have bought 4.9 times till March 13. 

In the leap-month February, DIIs were the net buyers and FIIs were the other way around. FIIs sold shares summing to Rs 15,963 crore in the cash market compared to DIIs who bought shares worth Rs 25,379 crore. Similarly, in February 2023, there were the same conditions. DIIs were net buyers and FIIs were net sellers. Where FIIs net sold equity of Rs 11,091 crore, DIIs became buyers of Rs 19,239 crore worth of shares. 

UPL, ITC, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Life Insurance, and Bajaj Finance were the top gainers in the Nifty 50. While BPCL, ONGC, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, and M&M were the major losers in the Nifty 50 on March 15.

Shares of ZEE Entertainment fell 4% to hit a fresh 52-week low of Rs 141.10 after Star India moved to arbitration against the company for canceling a $1.4 billion cricket rights deal signed in 2022. The company has a lower band of Rs 132.25.

The NSE Nifty 50 was down almost 200 points or 0.87% at 21,953 while the 30-stock Sensex was down around 550 points or 0.74% at 72,555.

Bajaj Finance, UPL, ITC, Bharti Airtel, and Britannia were the top gainers in the Nifty 50. While BPCL, Coal India, NTPC, ONGC, and Hero MotoCorp were the major laggards in the Nifty 50 on March 15.

Courtesy: NSE

Oil marketing companies (OMCs) experienced a notable decline in share prices on Friday, March 15, with a decrease of 3-4%, indicating a reversal from the earlier rally witnessed earlier in the year due to stable crude oil prices.

The sell-off in shares of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) was attributed to multiple factors. The government’s decision to reduce petrol and diesel prices by Rs 2 contributed to the downward pressure.

HPCL emerged as the day’s biggest loser, plummeting by over 6% to reach a low of Rs 468.55, while BPCL and IOC witnessed declines of up to 4% during Friday’s intra-day trading session.

Courtesy: NSE

Courtesy: NSE

Shares of One97 Communication were stuck in the upper circuit of 5%. The stock of the company rose to an intraday high of Rs 370.70. The company has an upper band of 370.70 and touched its 52-week-high of Rs 998.30 on October 20, 2023. The upsurge in the price can be attributed to NPCI approving the company to become a third-party application in the PSP model.

UPL, Power Grid, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, and Bharti Airtel were the top gainers in the Nifty 50. While BPCL, Infosys, LTIMindtree, M&M, and Axis Bank were the key laggards in the Nifty 50 on March 15.

The NSE Nifty 50 opened 0.41% lower at 22,056.85, while the BSE Sensex opened 0.38% lower at 72,822.89.

Bank Nifty held on to the 40-day average (46700) and the 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level (46616) and managed to close above that. “We believe that the selling pressure is being absorbed and we expect a recovery over the next few trading sessions in the case of Bank Nifty as well. In terms of levels, 46600 – 46500 is the crucial support while 47200- 47300 is the immediate hurdle,” said Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Commenting on the technical outlook Jatin Gedia, a technical research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said that on March 14 the Nifty opened on a weak note, however, recovered and closed the day with gains. 

“On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has held on to the support zone of 21900 – 21860 where support parameters in the form of the 40-day average and the previous swing low is placed. On the upside, the key hourly averages placed in the zone of 22200 – 22240 acted as a resistance and restricted further upside. In the current bounce back if the Nifty manages to overlap with the level of 22256 then the current fall shall turn out to be a corrective fall. Thus, it’s crucial how the structure pans out over the next few trading sessions,” said Gedia.

Aditya Birla Fashion, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Manappuram Finance, National Aluminium, Piramal Enterprise, RBL Bank, Sail, Tata Chemical, and Zee Entertainment Enterprise were in the F&O ban list on March 15.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares net worth Rs 1,356.29 crore. Whereas, domestic institutional investors (DII) bought shares net worth Rs 139.47 crore on March 14, 2024, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

WTI crude prices were trading at $81.25 up by 0.01%, while Brent crude prices were trading at $85.36 down by 0.06%, on Friday morning.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of six foreign currencies, traded higher, 0.08% at 103.44.

The equity indices in the US closed on a negative note after inflation data came hotter than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 137.66 points or 0.35% to 38,905.66. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite pulled back 0.30% to close at 16,129. While the S&P 500 slid 0.29% to settle at 5,150.48.